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GDP growth slips to 2.6 p.c. in Q3

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI MARCH 31. The growth rate of the economy has slipped to 2.6 per cent in the third quarter of the current fiscal (2002-03) against 6.3 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year, confirming apprehensions that the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the full year would be just around 4.4 per cent. In 2001-02, the economy grew by 5.6 per cent.

The growth rate has been consistently declining quarter by quarter this fiscal, beginning with 6 per cent in the first quarter, 5.8 per cent in the second and 2.6 per cent in the third quarter.

Data regarding quarterly estimates of GDP for October-December 2002 put out by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) show that the dip has been brought about because of a 7.9 per cent decline in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector even as manufacturing increased by 6.3 per cent, electricity, gas and water supply by 5.9 per cent and construction by 7 per cent.

Other services segments such as trade, hotels, transport and communications grew 7.5 per cent, while financing, insurance, real estate and business services grew by 8.1 per cent. The growth rate of mining, quarrying was estimated to be 4.6 per cent while community, social and personal services grew 5.5 per cent.

According to information provided by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, which was used to compile estimates of GDP of the agriculture sector, production of rice, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds declined by 15.5 per cent, 29.9 per cent, 18.1 per cent and 34.4 per cent, respectively, during October-December 2002. Production of cotton and sugarcane was also expected to decline by 11.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively.

The growth trend in the agriculture segment has been 4.4 per cent in the first quarter, zero in the second and a decline of 7.9 per cent in the third quarter, mainly because of the late onset of monsoon and the subsequent deficient rainfall in widespread parts of the country.

Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for October-December 2002 was estimated to be Rs. 352,637 crores against Rs. 343,737 crores in the third quarter of 2001, showing a growth rate of 2.6 per cent over the corresponding period of the previous year.

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