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By Our Special Correspondent
"India's foreign exchange markets have been broadly stable and orderly and GDP growth is likely to be in the region of 5 to 5.5 per cent despite this year's drought,'' Dr. Jalan said addressing central bank governors of Africa at a meeting organised by the Bank of International Settlements in Basel on Monday. He also said India had nearly tripled its foreign exchange reserves in the past three to four years and had kept the inflation low. Drawing on the Indian experience, Dr. Jalan said the primary responsibility for crisis prevention had to be that of the country itself. Emerging market countries in particular needed to adopt policies that prevented an external crisis from arising. Unlike in the past, he said, India had been able to prevent external crisis by adopting sound external management policies. A stable macro-economic environment with low inflation, low current account deficit and reasonable growth was essential to prevent crisis. Fortunately, Dr. Jalan said, India had been able to contain inflation below 3 per cent, had kept current account deficit below one per cent and had achieved growth above 5 per cent. Dr. Jalan said a policy to build a high level of foreign exchange reserves that took into account not only anticipated current account deficits but also liquidity at risk arising from unanticipated capital movements. He also said there was a need for judicious policy for management of the capital account, in particular, short-term banking capital for financing investments and growth had to be avoided.
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