The Hindu : Cong. may find the going tough in central Gujarat

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2002

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National

Cong. may find the going tough in central Gujarat

By Manas Dasgupta

VADODARA Dec. 9. If north Gujarat is a problem for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the coming elections to the State Assembly, south-central Gujarat is so for the Congress. While the shadow of riots has put a question mark on the possibility of the Congress repeating its success in central Gujarat, it is finding the going difficult in south Gujarat because of problems that are partly its own creation. As many as 32 of the 53 seats that the Congress won in the 1998 Assembly elections came from the south-central region. In central Gujarat, the dominant community of Kshatriyas — socially and educationally backward classes, mostly engaged in farming — and the tribals have traditionally been loyal to the Congress. But this time, things may be different.

After Ahmedabad, the communal riots that swept Gujarat were most widespread in central Gujarat, particularly the tribal-dominated districts of Panchamahals, of which Godhra is the district headquarters, and Dahod, Kaira and Anand. The large-scale participation of the tribals in the riots is seen here as the success of the "poisoning'' of their minds by the Sangh Parivar. The BJP is confident of having made deep in-roads in the Congress stronghold of Kaira, Anand and Vadodara districts, which alone contributed 26 seats to the Congress kitty in the last elections, but the Congress maintains that the "damage" will not be as severe as the BJP believes it will be.

``We will retain our seats in central Gujarat and, maybe, gain a few,'' claims the State Congress vice-president, Hasmukh Patel — the strongest reason being the merger of the Rashtriya Janata Party with the Congress. The two parties contested against each other last time and yet established a lead in 40 of the 43 seats over the BJP in the region. Though the RJP of Shankarsinh Waghela, now the State Congress president, won only three seats (out of the four it had in the dissolved Assembly), it polled much more than its State average of 12.57 per cent votes despite the strong pro-Keshubhai Patel wave.

The Congress' strong Kshatriya leadership in the region, including that of Madhavsinh Solanki, and the fact that a large number of its candidates come from this section would also help the party's cause. Its Kshatriya face has been strengthened by Mr. Waghela's appointment as the party president. The Congress calculation of winning 100-plus seats in the 182-member Assembly is based on getting at least 30 seats in the central region.

The tribals' participation in the riots, the Congress believes, was nothing more than their outburst against the Muslim trading community whom they perceived as their "exploiters.'' That was why they looted the property of Muslims, who, by and large, are rich and influential in central Gujarat and have been lending money to the tribals at exorbitant rates of interest.

To remove the impact of the riots from the minds of the tribals and other poorer sections, the Congress is "educating'' them about the problems they created for themselves by participating in the riots. Both the local and tribal Congress leaders from other States are telling them about the "dubious" role of the BJP leadership in the riots. While the BJP made political capital, "your kith and kin are languishing in jails," the family members of those arrested for rioting are being told.

The Congress president, Sonia Gandhi's success in pulling crowds in the tribal belt and the good response to the former PCC president, Amarsinh Chaudhary's "adivasi yatra'' point to the success of the party's campaign to some extent. But the Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, drew equally impressive crowds during his "gaurav yatra" through the region and the congregation at Karamsad in Anand district was considered the biggest of all his inaugural ceremonies.

In south Gujarat, the Congress has created problems for itself by denying ticket to four of its sitting MLAs. They are contesting as independents and have the blessings of the former Congress strongman, Jinabhai Darji. The Bharatiya Navshakti Party, floated by the rich and influential independent member of the Lok Sabha, Mohan Delkar, is also threatening to reduce the Congress vote-share among the tribals.

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