The Hindu : The saffron wave dissipates despite Modi magic

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Dec 10, 2002

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National

The saffron wave dissipates despite Modi magic

By Harish Khare

AHMEDABAD DEC. 9. The Modi magic is still working. But the Godhra fever has subsided. The Hindutva tide has turned. And is still turning. With each passing day, the BJP is losing out, and the Congress is inching close towards a workable majority in Gujarat. The "fundamentals", to use the Indian economists' conveniently useful phrase, are becoming wobbly for the BJP. Nothing tells the story better than the SOS sent out to the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP leader, Mayawati, to come and campaign for the BJP in a State that is quintessentially a BJP State, that too in an election which is supposed to be a showcase for the hard Hindutva appeal.

The only thing that is still working for the BJP is the Modi magic. The caretaker Chief Minister continues to draw the young and the rough crowd; at the same time, he also attracts the women voters. And, Mr. Modi does have a way with words.

People like L.K. Advani and Arun Jaitely — no ordinary leaders when it comes to rhetoric — are reduced to mere spectators in Mr. Modi's presence.

But this is about all. Mr. Modi's Godhra mantra is beginning to sound repetitive. "The BJP campaign peaked too early; now they are merely trying to sustain the tempo. A rather tough job," noted a senior official. The result: the naturalness of the political chemistry is resurfacing. After all, last time in 1998 when the BJP scored a massive victory, it was the beneficiary of the double anti-incumbency factor; nearly five years later, it is being held accountable for its tardy performance in Gandhinagar as well as for an equally uninspiring show by the Vajpayee Government at the Centre.

Among the "fundamentals" that have gone wobbly is the total change in the minorities' attitude towards the Congress. The high-velocity "Godhra'' chanting by the BJP brass has ensured that in each constituency the Muslims would vote en masse for the Congress.

The Mulayam Singh Yadav-Amar Singh duo would of course be spending quite a bit of money on "Muslims leaders", but the Muslim community is not likely to be taken in by Mr. Yadav's claim to be the only genuine "secular" leader.

Second, somehow the caretaker Chief Minister has managed to annoy, almost to the extent of alienation, the bureaucracy. Except for half-a-dozen IAS/IPS officers in Gandhinagar, the entire bureaucracy at the senior level is distinctly unhelpful to the ruling party. The factor is further reinforced by the Election Commission. Government servants, teachers in particular, are an extremely dissatisfied lot. As the electoral battle becomes a close call, this "fundamental" could have a devastating effect.

Third, there is the "Keshubhai factor", especially in the Saurashtra region. Out of a total of 58 seats in the region, the BJP won 51 the last time round. Today, the party would consider itself fortunate if it can retain half of that tally, all because of the "Keshubhai factor". Mr. Patel is too senior and too loyal an organisational man to work against the party, but there is a crucial difference between going through the motion and being cheerfully involved. His followers can see it for themselves that their man is not going to be the next chief minister.

To the extent the BJP in Gujarat has almost been reduced to a Modi outfit, the crucial Patel vote and energy would not be available to all party candidates.

The Congress is all poised to pick up about 20 extra seats from the region. In contrast, the Congress seems to be benefiting from the Shankersinh Waghela factor. After a long time, the "kashtriya" community feels it has a reason to side with the Congress. The BJP, on its part, does not have an all-Gujarat OBC leader to neutralise the Waghela effect.

Fourth, because the Godhra/Modi campaign peaked too early, the Congress strategists have managed to retrieve their support base among the Harijans and tribals. The traditional cleavages among them are reasserting themselves; at one time the BJP was threatening to overrun electorally the tribal areas of central and north Gujarat. These were the areas which have witnessed considerable post-Godhra violence. But the intervening six months have triggered new reactions. For example, the Modi Government has not been able to extricate the rioters from the slow-moving enquiries, and that hurts. In some places, the rioters are complaining of having been underpaid by the Ahmedabad bosses.

Fifth, the Congress has taken the BJP frontally on the terrorism front. Without sounding as an apologist of the "jehadi Islam'', the Congress has put the BJP on the backfoot by pointing out that the Modi Government in Gandhinagar and the Vajpayee Government in New Delhi had failed to "protect" us against the terrorists, be it at Akshardham or the Raghunath Temple. Mr. Advani sounds pedestrian reiterating at meeting after meeting his Government's "determination" to defeat terrorism.

The Advanis and the Venkiah Naidus have, instead, begun talking of the Congress "misdeeds" of first 50 years, distracting from Mr. Modi's Godhra sale-pitch.

And, lastly, the Congress has bogged the BJP down in local issues. The voter has been forced to evaluate the BJP/VHP harping on Godhra/gaurav against the BJP Government's (mis)performance. Each region has its own quota of grievances against the Government of the day.

The "fundamentals" have the cumulative effect of making the Gujarat battle a dead heat. The saffron wave has dissipated.

The Congress may claw its way back to power in Gandhinagar, provided the high command can sustain the factional synergy till the polling day.

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