The Hindu : An ongoing power shift in China?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Dec 09, 2002

International

International

An ongoing power shift in China?

By P. S. Suryanarayana

SINGAPORE Dec. 8. The replacement of Hu Jintao by Zeng Qinghong as the President of the `Party School' of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee is a change that has taken place as part of the ongoing power shift, however gradual it might actually be, in that country. Mr. Hu, CPC's new General Secretary, had so far headed this important institution within the party's overall power pyramid on the basis of his status as a ranking member of the previous leadership gallery. Mr. Hu was a ranking member of what was characterised as a "collective leadership with Jiang Zemin at the core''.

Mr. Hu's stewardship of the `Party School' until now was linked, in one sense, to his designated status as the prime leader of the CPC's "fourth generation'' and that, too, in the specific context of Mr. Jiang's position at the `core' of the organisation's "third generation'' of leadership. It was indeed Deng Xiaoping, China's "paramount leader'' of the post-Mao era, who identified Mr. Hu as the rising star of the "fourth generation'' even while zeroing in on Mr. Jiang for the post of the CPC General Secretary during a tumultuous period in 1989 that was marked by the "Tianenman Square crisis''.

As for the elevation of Mr. Zeng, known to be close to Mr. Jiang, the criterion of leadership-generations does not really apply, as both Mr. Hu and the new President of the `Party School' are of a post-Jiang political vintage (broadly defined). However, Mr. Jiang himself will occupy the party's centre stage for as long as he remains China's President and the Chairman of the CPC's powerful Central Military Commission.

It is in this significant sub-text that Mr. Zeng's emergence at the helm of the `Party School' is being evaluated within the wider regional diplomatic circles. It is considered too early, though, to foresee whether Mr. Zeng can and will emerge as a political force to reckon with in the context of Mr. Hu's pivotal position as the CPC's General Secretary.

The two could even become partners and not competitors within the party hierarchy. This aspect of ``China's post-Jiang leadership succession'' will depend on the style and substance of Mr. Hu's stewardship of the party.

For the present, the party managers have not gone beyond characterising the present dispensation as the "CPC Central Committee with Mr. Hu as General Secretary''. Though this contrasts with Mr. Jiang's own past status at the `core' of a "collective leadership'', the fact is that Mr. Hu acquired position as the party's chief executive less than a month ago. In some CPC roll-calls, Mr. Jiang, who keeps the Central Military Commission under his wings, ranks above Mr. Hu.

These aspects of a political transition in China do not easily lend themselves to such Western-style political riddles of the kind whether Mr. Hu will have to play second fiddle to Mr. Jiang and if so, for how long. China-watchers like Orville Schell have, with a touch of inquisitiveness and scepticism, portrayed CPC's "mandate of heaven'' to rule the country. However, the CPC takes its own governing mandate very seriously in a situation of power monopoly. A noted China specialist, Zheng Yongnian, has even posed the question whether the CPC might be heading "towards (the status of) a social democratic party?''

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An ongoing power shift in China?