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dated December 6, 1952: Peking — Moscow Axis

A survey by the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London said there was little prospect of an early break between Moscow and Peking. The Institute, however, predicted that the conflicting interests of the two Powers would inevitably lead to a clash in the future, with China's bargaining power steadily rising. China was too dependent on Russia to benefit from any immediate alienation from the Kremlin. The Chinese Communists were playing to win a lot by continuing the association, and Moscow appeared too shrewd to try to take over the leadership in China. But China's and Russia's interests were more opposed than complementary. Historically the two had never had a closer entente. The survey said that the Chinese were likely to press for more and more authority within the Moscow-Peking Axis and, eventually, were likely even to assume a dominant role in Asia.

Thus the Soviet Union had to be prepared for an ultimate reckoning with China.

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