WORLD AFFAIRS

Heralding change

JOHN CHERIAN

In Portugal, the Socialists wrest power from the centre-right Social Democratic Party in the February 20 general elections.

ARMANDO FRANCA/AP

Jose Socrates, Socialist Party leader and next Prime Minister.

THE victory of the centre-left Socialist Party in the February 20 general elections in Portugal did not come as a surprise. Opinion polls had predicted such an outcome in the run-up to the elections. The Socialist Party should be particularly happy with the results, as it has managed to gain a simple majority on its own in the national Parliament for the first time since the overthrow of the right-wing Antonio Salazar dictatorship in 1974.

The Socialists won 119 seats in the 230-member Parliament. The party was not happy with the prospects of sharing power as its earlier attempts at political cohabitation were not too successful. The Communist Party had indicated that it was willing to enter into a coalition with the Socialists but its offer may now be redundant. The other, smaller left-wing grouping had said that it was willing to offer only issue-based support to a government led by the Socialists.

Former Environment Minister Jose Socrates led the Socialist Party to victory. The 47-year-old Socrates is known to be in favour of economic liberalisation.

Now that the Socialist Party can form a government on its own strength, it may go slow in the implementation of certain poll promises. An overwhelming majority of the people were against the centre-right government's support for the war in Iraq. The Left parties and also many prominent personalities in the Socialist Party had demanded the speedy withdrawal of the small Portuguese military contingent in Iraq. Portugal has 120 police personnel deployed in Iraq.

THE voter turnout was more than 10 million - the biggest since the "Carnation Revolution" of 1974 which toppled the Salazar dictatorship.

The Left parties too did well. The Portuguese Communist Party/Green Party coalition got around 8 per cent of the votes. It now has 14 seats. Another grouping, calling itself the Left Bloc, won around 6.4 per cent of the vote; it more than doubled its tally in comparison to the general elections of 2002 and became the biggest gainer in the elections. The Left Bloc has eight seats in Parliament. Among European Union (E.U.) countries, the Left commands the widest support in Portugal.

MARCOS BORGA/REUTERS

Social Democratic Party leader and Prime Minister Pedro Santana Lopez concedes defeat.

Some analysts are comparing the election results in Portugal to the recent electoral outcomes in Latin America, where left-wing and other populist parties have gained ascendancy. The people of Portugal have shown through the ballot box their disillusionment with the neoliberal policies of their government and its support for globalisation and the war in Iraq. The electoral performance of right-wing parties has worsened since the introduction of multi-party democracy in the country.

President Jorge Sampao called the elections after dissolving Parliament in December last year. There were no major protests when the President took the precipitate step of ordering new elections years ahead of schedule. The reason given for the dissolution by the presidential spokesman was the Prime Minster's inability to "mobilise Portugal and the Portuguese in a coherent and stable manner".

The conservative government led by Pedro Santana Lopez could hold on to office for only seven months. Lopez's brief tenure in office was notable for mismanagement and a number of political blunders. Some of his own Cabinet Ministers contradicted him publicly. A senior Minister resigned four days after he was shifted to the Sports Ministry.

The Left Bloc, in its election manifesto, had called for the implementation of a 10-point programme. Besides the issue of contraception and the war in Iraq, the Left Bloc focussed on the issues of unemployment, tax reforms and the adverse impact of globalisation. Abortion was one of the most emotive issues in the campaign. The Catholic Church, which continues to be influential in Portugal, took a strong stand on the issue, reflecting the Vatican's uncompromising position on the issue of legalising abortions. The Church sent out an open message to the voters requesting that they cast their ballots for those parties that "defend the right to life". This was a clear-cut appeal to the voters to rally in favour of the ruling Social Democratic Party (SDS) and its right-wing coalition partner, the Popular Party (P.P.).

The Left Parties, which had been campaigning on the issue for a long time, had collected more than 120,000 signatures demanding a referendum on the subject. Among E.U. countries, Portugal has the strictest anti-abortion laws, under which women can be convicted to three years in prison if caught undergoing an abortion. A national referendum on abortion held in 1998 was won by the status quoists. The Socialist Prime Minister at the time, Antonio Guterres, had in fact issued a statement in support of the ban on abortions.

The high unemployment rate was another key factor that led to the defeat of the centre-right government. The unemployment rate rose to 7.1 per cent in the last quarter of 2004, the highest level since 1998. The Left Parties hold the privatisation policies responsible for much of the economic mess the country finds itself in today. The Left has demanded that new jobs be created, especially in the education and health sectors. Under previous governments, government hospitals were privatised. The Left parties want the new government to reverse the trend.

The leaders of the Portuguese Socialist Party, like their social democratic counterparts in the rest of Europe, are avid proponents of privatisation and globalisation. During the election campaign, the Socialist Party leader assured domestic and international business interests that a Socialist-led government would govern "responsibly" and would exercise "spending restraint". Despite membership in the E.U., Portugal continues to be among the least industrialised nations in Western Europe. Joining the E.U. in 1986 had no doubt improved the country's economic infrastructure and prospects. Emigration has considerably come down. However, in the last couple of years, as the E.U. has expanded, manufacturers have gone to countries where the costs are lower.

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